The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. James discusses developments in Iran on TRT World and BFM.89.9. The BFM audio and transcript is below the TRT transcript. Please also see this Channel News Asia article on Iran that quotes me. TRANSCRIPT TRT [Anchor] Well, let’s get more now on this with James Dorsey, who is a Middle East analysis at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. James, we just heard there just how extensive the US military bases and assets are in the Middle East. What are Iran’s options militarily against the might of the US? [James M. Dorsey] Louisa, I think one first of all has to make a caveat on the significant US military presence in the region. There’s no doubt that they have numerous aircraft, 50,000 troops, and so on. The problem with that is that the Gulf states are unlikely to want to see the United States attack Iran from their soil. And so therefore, the presence is there. It’s a deterrence, but it doesn’t really allow the United States, if it wanted to do so, to conduct a sustained attack on Israel. It would allow the B-52 bombers in Guam, which were used last year in June to attack the Iranian nuclear sites, could do one-off strikes again, but they cannot do a sustained operation. If and when Iran wants to retaliate, it really has to retaliate outside of Iran. There are no Israeli or US targets inside the country. [Anchor] I see. Okay. In terms of Iran’s position, though, at the moment, bearing all of that in mind, it is weakened at the moment. Is this the weakest that the Ali Khamenei government has ever been? [James M. Dorsey] It is probably the weakest point, both in terms of the last two years, the significant weakening of its non-state allies like Hezbollah, the Iraqi Shiite groups, and also to some degree, perhaps, the Houthis in Yemen. And of course, it is now facing one of the most significant challenges, if not the most significant challenge, to its control of Iran, even though in recent days, it looks like the government is claiming the upper hand against the protesters. [Anchor] James, let’s turn to the US again. What is its justification for getting involved? And what are its motivations? [James M. Dorsey] Question is, does Donald Trump need justification? His official justification is that he wants to protect the protesters. That’s a double-edged sword. Trump’s belief is that attacks on Iran in support of the protests will embolden the protests and hopefully lead to a change of regime. Whether that’s realistic or not is questionable. First of all, it risks creating a power vacuum in Iran that could see the country descend into the kind of violence we’ve seen in Syria, for example. Keep in mind that a significant percentage of the Iranian population are ethnic minorities who want to see autonomy. Some want to see independence. On the other hand, if the United States were to attack, it would be designed to intimidate the regime. Now, as a final word on this, the United States has multiple options. We’ve seen that with the imposition of 25 percent tariffs on countries trading with Iran, an effort to further isolate the country. It could use cyber security. It has multiple options that not necessarily involve military action. [Anchor] Let me just quickly ask you before we let you go, James. In terms of those strikes in the summer on nuclear facilities from the US into Iran, will that have weakened Iran further and put them off disagreeing with the US again? [James M. Dorsey] Well, the issue on the nuclear programme is the issue of enrichment. That’s what the talks last year stalled on. Obviously, in many ways, yes, it’s weakening Iran, because it’s a further setback that followed already on the degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the degradation of Hamas in Gaza, and the weakening of Shiite militias, Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq. [Anchor] Okay. James Dorsey, thank you for giving us your expertise on this. We appreciate it. Middle East Analyst, thank you very much. [James M. Dorsey] Louisa, my pleasure. BFM 89.9 12 mins, 08:30, 13 Jan 2026 Guest: Dr James M Dorsey (Adjunct Senior Fellow), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies |